The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent crude oil prices will return to above $80 per barrel this month, after dipping to $73 per barrel on September 6. In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $82 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.
Market concerns over economic growth and oil demand have increased, but EIA expects that global oil reserves will begin to decline as OPEC+ production cuts result in global oil consumption exceeding global oil production. OPEC+ member countries announced last week that they will be delaying production increases until December. Those increases were initially set to begin next month.
"We expect that oil prices will be pushed upward in the coming weeks and months as global oil consumption outpaces production," said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. "There are uncertainties in the market, including demand growth in China and supply disruptions in the Middle East, that could push prices higher or lower in the short term."